Analysis: Does Maiola's resignation mean Gregg will go also?

The resignation of Judd Gregg's long time aide Joel Maiola as chief of staff will increase chatter that Gregg could soon resign himself.

Speculation over whether or not Gregg would leave his Senate seat for a federal judgeship is far from new. The conversation was the probably the loudest after both he and his friend President George W. Bush were re-elected in 2004. The Gregg rumors slowed down once Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, took office in 2005 allowing him to appoint a fellow Democrat like Jeanne Shaheen to replace him.

But now the scenario is different. The latest has it that Gregg could be appointed this December, after the elections. Gregg is now serving in his third term and in the minority party. Bush is on his way out the door. Even if a Republican wins the presidential race in November, a President John McCain would not be as kind to Gregg as Bush would be. And there is Shaheen. If she wins her Senate race this fall then her name is off the table. If she loses can Lynch pick someone who has been rejected twice by the state's voters for the same job? If not, then what does Lynch do? There is no obvious choice.

He could pick U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes. Hodes would gladly accept, but there are some in the party establishment wouldn't be too pleased. He could appoint himself, though if he wanted to be in the Senate he would be running against U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu this year and not Shaheen. This is the nightmare scenario for state Democrats that will bring up a whole host of issues about the more moderate group that controls Democratic politics in the state and the growing insurgent progressive wing.

The safest move might be to pick a moderate Republican like former Governor Walter Peterson. Peterson would vote like a Democrat once in the Senate anyway and probably not seek re-election.

Maiola is about a New Hampshire institution as Gregg. In the coming year we will find out if this resignation is chance for Maiola to do his own thing or if it is a foreshadowing of fascinating time in Granite State politics.