July 23, 2008 - 9:13am
Poll has Bradley beating Shea-Porter, Hodes leading potential opponents
By Brian Lawson
Category: HouseTags: UNH Poll, Paul Hodes, NH-02, NH-01, John Stephe, Jim Steiner, Jennifer Horn, Jeb Bradley, Grant Bosse, Granite State Poll, Carol Shea-Porter, Bob Clegg
A UNH poll contains good news for U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-Concord) but show trouble for U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester).
According to The Granite State Poll, Shea-Porter is losing to former U.S. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro) 46 percent to 40 percent. However, the same poll has Shea-Porter beating Bradley's primary rival, former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen 42 percent to 36 percent.
Bradley enjoys a 48 percent favorable rating, while 62 percent of voters say they do not know enough about Stephen. Shea-Porter is viewed favorably by 35 percent of voters and 32 percent view her has unfavorable.
In the 2nd Congressional District Hodes holds substantial leads over state Sen. Bob Clegg (R-Hudson) and Jennifer Horn (R-Nashua).
Hodes leads Clegg 44 percent to 25 percent and beats Horn 43 percent to 23 percent.
Both Clegg and Horn remain unknown to most voters. 62 percent of voters do not know enough about Clegg and 77 percent say the same about Horn.
The poll did not match Hodes up against either Jim Steiner (R-Concord) or Grant Bosse (R-Hillsboro).
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Poll
Two recent polls suggest Obama is up 10 points in NH. What do you think?
Sounds right to me
20%
I doubt it is right, but I hope it is
20%
I doubt it is right, but I just hope it is wrong
40%
This state is still tied
0%
McCain has a slight lead in my eyes
0%
Obama is up slightly, but not by double digits
20%
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Syndicate
This is familiar
Andy Smith's polls had the same result in 2006. In fact, he was wrong about everything in 2006.
How is it that a sample size
How is it that a sample size as small as Smith's is considered statistically relevant? Explain to me why the only statewide polling outfit is allowed to put out poll after poll with amazingly high MOE's and small sample sizes?
That said, CSP better get her tail in gear and start making more inroads with those people that will determine this election for her, not just the liberal activists.
Andy Smith's polling
This is a "Swiss Cheese poll" there are so many holes in it. It is very disappointing to have such a bad poll sully the reputation of the UNH Survey Center. I hope that Andy Smith will do another poll soon that can stand up to the smell test and regain the status of the center that has been lost by this bad poll.
Carol must be scared to have
Carol must be scared to have her minions out in force bad mouthing the UNH poll. Funny thing is, there wasn’t a peep out of the lefties about this same UNH poll when it showed Obama and Shaheen in the lead, so which is it, is the poll legit or is it garbage? And if it is garbage are you willing to admit that its garbage for Shaheen and Obama?
Bradley Wins
Of course Bradley beats Shea-Porter in a head-to-head. The voters see the mistake they made in '06 by removing Bradley.
Also, if Stephen's gets wins the primary, Shea-Porter and company are going to destroy him by using his connections to Abramoff.
Jeb Bradley is the best candidate in the race for CD 1. Period.
The 2006 elections was a
The 2006 elections was a fluke, Jeb would cream Shea-Porter and all other dems.
John Stephen's record at the
John Stephen's record at the human health services is abysmal.
At the debates he can not defend himself when Jeb brings it up.
Congrats Jeb keep up the
Congrats Jeb keep up the good work and you will be back in Washington in no time.
This proves yet again that
This proves yet again that we need Bradley to win the nomination
Bradley
Did any of you Bradley fanboys see the Shea-Porter v. Bradley debates?
Jeb's debate style consists of repeating right wing talking points endlessly. Shea-Porter whipped him every time - and she'll do it again.
The senior citizens in this state vote, and the last thing they're going to vote for in an uncertain economy is a guy who wants to turn Social Security over to Wall St.
Polling
I'm not at all worried by poll numbers this early in the contest. Jeb Bradley held himself out before as a "moderate" Republican, good on environmental issues, then backed the Bush neofascists nearly 100% of the time. That doomed him last time, and will doom him again this time. He is a right-winger in moderate's clothing, just like McCain. Carol will destroy him in head-to-head debate, just as she did before, because she was right on the issues then, and is right on them now. As for the Shaheen-Sununu race, that was always going to tighten. Jeanne has a lot of work to do to overcome her overly cautious right-center image. If she doesn't, she doesn't offer much of a contrast with Johnny Jr.
More on Polling
Just to show how inaccurate the UNH poll is, the two latest polls on the Shaheen-Sununu race have Shaheen up by 22 points (ARG poll, taken at the same time as the UNH poll with a larger sampling) and the Rasmussen poll, taken in mid-June, has Shaheen up by 14 points. I don't know what Andy Smith's problem is, but he was very wrong in 2006, and that record doesn't bode well for him this time around. As I said, even if he's right, at this point, it means little, and Carol will take care of Jeb. Oh, by the way, did you all know that he stated a couple of years ago at a town hall meeting that he thought Saddam's WMD were buried out in the sand somewhere? And this is a guy some of you want in Washington?
Spinach Lady
DickNH, calling Shea Porter a stronger candidate, using words like "neo-fascists" and calling Shaheen "center right" (ha! as if)indicates that (A) you are on the radical fringe of your party, (B) are on good meds, or (C) all of the above. Last time i checked NH was a pretty moderate state (leaning blue and red on certain issues respectively) so unless we've turned into San Francisco overnight then I would argue that your point is moot. Even as a republican I can tell you that Shaheen is the stronger candidate (vs. Shea Porter that is) as she has a voting record that directly impacted NH during her 6 years (vs. under 2 years for Shea Porter and supporting pork projects unrelated to NH).
To my friend Jack Mitchell, I need to respond to your last post (on another thread, busy day), however after reading this I couldn't resist myself from responding.
DFM-Salem
I agree 100%, and I'm a Democrat. Let's not pollute the debate by using smears like "neofascist" to describe candidates. It (usually) isn't accurate, it only makes you look like a loon, and most importantly, it doesn't prove anything.
That said, I have serious questions about Andy Smith's polling sample--whether they favor Dems or not.
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