Polls, Polls, Polls everywhere but what do they mean?

One day the University of New Hampshire releases a poll showing former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-Madbury) with a small lead over U.S. Sen. John Sununu (R-Waterville Valley), the next day Rasmussen releases a poll that shows Sununu with a lead over Shaheen.  Both polls showed John McCain with a lead over Barack Obama but Marist College conducted a poll that had Obama beating McCain by three points.

Earlier this week in the 2nd Congressional District, Jennifer Horn's (R-Nashua) campaign released a poll that had Horn in a tight race with U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-Concord), a couple days later Hodes released a poll that, you guessed it, showed Hodes with a substantial lead over Horn.

For some it might be a contradiction, but for others it is simply just another week in New Hampshire politics.  In a state in which polls showed Barack Obama with a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton, only to see Clinton defeat Obama on primary day, having polls that shows close races and opposite results has become as common has the fall foliage.

Scott Spradling, president of the Spradling Group, said it is important to consider the source of the poll.

"I'm someone who believes more in the polls that are local. I just believe in Andy Smith having worked with him before. He's got a good formula, he gets it and he's closer to everyone, he's physically here," Spradling, a former WMUR political reporter, said. "The ones like Rasmussen can capture some trends but I just think that their fluctuation varies more widely because they're out of state polling."

Others suggest that instead of looking at individual polls observers should look at the bigger picture.

"You have to look at these only individually or you have to look at all of them together but not in a statistical thing, I'm just telling you what I think you already know that environmentally this is a very close election," Tom Rath, former New Hampshire Attorney General, told PolitickerNH.com. "New Hampshire is going to be very close in the major races right to the end."

Wayne Lesperance, political science professor at New England College, said the polls show that Republicans have been able to close the gap with the Democrats.

"I think the polls reflect a bit of narrowing the gap on the part of the Republican equation," Lesperance said. "We saw Senator Sununu was down a number of points not that long ago and he's close that gap according to the UNH poll and John McCain appears to have edge-out a small lead, though still within the margin of error. Still the trends tell us that both have improved their stance among voters in New Hampshire."

Lesperance added, "I suspect we'll see a lot of movement back and forth until November."

Spring and summer polls showed Shaheen cruising to a victory over Sununu, yet now polls show that the race is shaping-up to be an intense battle, similar to their 2002 race.

"The movement towards Sununu is frankly a sign that people are now tuning in, in a more serious way. I think that any poll before September you're polling folks, for the most part voters aren't all that keyed into the election," Lesperance said.

Lesperance also said that the pick of Gov. Sarah Palin has energized Republicans down ballot.

Rath, a Republican, contributed the close senate race to Sununu's ability to define the race as a choice between him and Shaheen.

"What Sununu has done with his advertising is to show that the choice is not between George Bush and Jeanne Shaheen it's between John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen," Rath said.

In the 1st Congressional District, a recent UNH poll showed former U.S. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro) with a small lead over current U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester).  The two will meet for their first debate on Monday in Bedford. Spradling, who is moderating that debate, said he expects a "spirited debate."

"I get the sense from the Bradley perspective there's some unfinished business, these two people could not be any more different in tone and in personality and I don't think there's any love lost between the two candidates," Spradling said.

Despite the flux polls one thing seems certain: Gov. John Lynch (D-Hopkinton) appears to be on his way to another term, but who will be joining him in victory is less clear.