Cullen's Challenge: 2-6-7-18

Editor's Note: Starting today, University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala, who blogs about Granite State politics at GraniteProf (http://graniteprof.typepad.com/), is contributing regular analysis at PolitickerNH.com.

Entering the home stretch of the 2008 filing season, we can take the pulse of New Hampshire's Grand Old Party with four numbers: 2-6-7-18.

Those are the numbers of four state Senate districts for which there are currently no GOP challengers.

All four are held by first-term Democrats: Deborah Reynolds in the 2nd; Jacalyn Cilley in the 6th; Harold Janeway in the 7th; and Betsi DeVries in the 18th.

All four of these districts have voting patterns that are marginally favorable (or marginally unfavorable) to the Republicans, based on the last presidential election.  (This rules out first-termer Molly Kelly, who represents the bluer-than-blue 10th district in Cheshire County.)

In short, these are tough but winnable races if this is a year in which Republicans are competitive up and down the ticket.

Over the next week, we will find out whether potential candidates for those districts actually think Republicans will be competitive enough to venture a shot at unseating these first-term Democrats.  The willingness (or lack thereof) of solid candidates to enter the fray will tell us something about GOP prospects five months away from the election.