June 24, 2008 - 11:29am
Dems enjoy early edge in state Senate match-ups
By Dante Scala
Category: LocalTags: State Senate, Peter Burling, Bob Clegg, Molly Kelly, John Gallus, Lou D'Allesandro, Jack Barnes, Joe Kenney, Joe Foster, Sylvia Larsen, Ted Gatsas, Sheila Roberge, Iris Estabrook, Bob Odell, Mike Downing, Robert Letourneau, Peter BragdonTop Story: Opinion
Here's a review of the state Senate playing field as we begin the summer.
The races are divided into five categories: Strong Democratic, Lean Democratic, Toss-up, Lean Republican and Strong Republican.
Let's start with the Democrats:
STRONG DEMOCRATIC (7)
- District 5 (open seat, currently held by Peter Burling)
- District 10 (Molly Kelly)
- District 13 (open seat, currently held by Joe Foster)
- District 15 (Sylvia Larsen)
- District 20 (Lou D'Allesandro)
- District 21 (open seat, currently held by Iris Estabrook)
- District 24 (Martha Fuller Clark)
Notes: Open seats should pose little problem for Democrats. Tough to see an Eaton comeback unless political weather changes. You'll know it's election season when Sen. D'Allesandro is pumping gas at Bill Sarette's Tire and Battery.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC (6)
- District 2 (Deborah Reynolds)
- District 4 (Kathleen Sgambati)
- District 6 (Jacalyn Cilley)
- District 7 (Harold Janeway)
- District 18 (Betsi DeVries)
- District 23 (Maggie Hassan)
Notes: Marginal demographics plus a potential quality challenger put Hassan's seat in this category for now. Early political winds at backs of first-term incumbents. How competitive will GOP challengers be in fundraising?
TOSS-UP (1)
- District 12 (open seat, currently held by David Gottesman)
Notes: Democrats happy to be sitting on 13 seats, but wish it were 14.
LEANS REPUBLICAN (5)
- 1 (John Gallus)
- 3 (open seat, currently held by Joe Kenney)
- 8 (Bob Odell)
- 11 (Peter Bragdon)
- 16 (Ted Gatsas)
Notes: Gallus, like Hassan, easily could move to "Strong" if challenger can't keep up. Could the Carroll County seat flip if it's another strong Democratic year?
STRONG REPUBLICAN (5)
- 9 (Sheila Roberge)
- 14 (Open, currently held by Bob Clegg)
- 17 (Jack Barnes)
- 19 (Robert Letourneau)
- 22 (Mike Downing)
Dante Scala teaches American politics at the University of New Hampshire and blogs at Graniteprof.
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Have to disagree about
District 13 (open seat, currently held by Joe Foster) - That is going to be a very close race. Sandra Ziehm is a well respected member of the School Committee and is very well known around Nashua. I think a race between her and Bette Lasky would be a toss-up. Remember, Joe Foster only got 56% against a poorly funded candidate in 2006 that made the general electoin ballot as a write in. I also think the former Kenney seat in District 3 is a tossup, maybe even leaning Dem.
Fergus' La La Land
District 13 is a strong Democratic seat. The reality of Foster's close race is that he did not raise nor expend much money. Foster barely campaign and didn't bother to even hire a campaign manager.
Bette and her husband Dr. Elliot Lasky are both extremely prominent and active community leaders. Unlike Foster, Bette will raise the money, hire the staff and go door to door.
This ain't gonna be close.
Jum Splaine's 19 Democrats
The strong Democratic, lean Democratic, toss up and lean Republican add up to 19.
For months Jim Splaine has been touting the 19 Democrats banner. So here it is.
Lordy, Lordy! Who would the Republicans elect as Senate Minority Leader if the caucus were down to Roberge, Carson, Barnes, Letourneau and Downing?
Kruse to Victory? Don't Laugh he could
In the landslide of 2006 DeVries won by about the same percentage as Sgambati and Reynolds, even though she is in much more favorable district to a Democrat. In 2004, Dave Gelinas barley lost despite the fact that Benson and Bush did well in district 18. There is strong evidence that DeVries is a very weak candidate and if 2006 was normal year she never would have made it to the Senate. She should have won 60-40 in 2006 but she didn't.
Kruse to No Where
Martel had deep and significant connections to many residents in district 18. Doug Kruse moved to Manchester about the same time as Guinta did.
Betsi's record of accomplishment will be more than enough to hand Kruser a big defeat.
Senate District 16
I'd move Gatsas's seat up to the toss up category. Bob Backus nearly defeated him two years ago. There's blood in the water and the Dems are going to put a lot of effort into getting rid of Teddy once and for all.
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