GOP at decade low in party ID

Let's pick up where we left off last week, and put the Democrats' current 6-point advantage in party ID (as measured by my colleague Andy Smith at the University of New Hampshire Survey Center ) in recent historical perspective.

So far this decade, New Hampshire has had two close elections and two lopsided ones. In all four, UNH Survey Center polling of voters' party identification offered an important clue as to the strength and heading of the political winds.

In 2000 and 2004, the top-of-the-ticket race was decided by a single percentage point. Eight years ago George W. Bush defeated Al Gore, 48 percent to 47 percent. Four years later, John Kerry carried New Hampshire, 50-49.

Fall polling in both those years indicated near parity in party ID. In 2000, Republicans led by two points, 43 percent to 41 percent, with 16 percent of voters identifying themselves as independent. Four years later, the GOP held a bare one-point advantage, 44-43, with 13 percent independent.

In contrast, New Hampshire voters' party ID in the last two off-year elections veered sharply out of balance.

In 2002, Republicans enjoyed a 9-point advantage, 47-38, in the last days of the campaign (15 percent described themselves as independent). On Election Day, Craig Benson steamrolled Mark Fernald by a 3-2 margin, John Sununu defeated Jeanne Shaheen by a larger-than-expected margin of 20,000 votes, and the GOP enjoyed sweeping victories downticket.

Four years later, Democrats reaped the benefits of a significant party ID advantage. The party's seven-point margin (46-39 with 16 percent independent) translated into a virtual clean sweep of the GOP.

The GOP's large off-year advantage in 2002 faded by the time of the next presidential election. So far at least, the Democrats' off-year gains in party ID have not. In the UNH Survey Center's springtime polling, the GOP remained at its decade low of 39 percent, and the Democrats stayed very near its decade high.

Dante Scala teaches American politics at the University of New Hampshire and blogs at Graniteprof.