Obama up 10? It's not so crazy
By Dante ScalaIn the past 24 hours, we've seen not one, but two polls showing Barack Obama up double digits in New Hampshire.
Are we seeing not one, but two outliers? Has New Hampshire turned a Vermont shade of blue? I don't think so, and here's why.
Let's start with a look at the national polls. It's clear that Obama has broken this race wide open, at least for now. Pollster.com estimates his lead nationally at 7 points.
Three months ago, we estimated New Hampshire's PVI (partisan voting index) at R-2 or R-3. In other words, given the results of the 2004 election and demographic trends since that time, one would expect a Republican presidential candidate to perform two or three percentage points below his national standing here in the Granite State.
In that context, a 10-point Obama lead here is perfectly plausible, in the context of a national race where the Democrat leads by seven. In that context, New Hampshire is behaving just as we might expect from a purple state with a Democratic tilt.
If Obama's national lead closes, then we might well expect New Hampshire to follow suit. But this is no longer a state where the Republican presidential candidate can survive a high Democratic tide nationally.
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Ok then tell us?
Ok Dante,
Please tell us what it would take to make this Blue Hampshire?
Let's see? The House and Senate will both continue to be controlled by the Dems with some big pick ups coming in Carroll County this year.
Chances are good that 3 out of 4 seats in Washington will be Dem.
Most people in NH don't even know a Republican is running against Lynch.
The state chairman of the Republican's didn't even make it in the top 50 most powerful people in NH Politics.
Democrats have out raised the Republicans across the board.
Voter registration has favored the Dems the last few years.
What do they need to do to turn NH Blue?
was just talking presidential politics
Was just referring to presidential politics here, though your points are well-taken.
If NH becomes R -3 / D + 3, that puts us in the political neighborhood of Minnesota. Still a battleground state, but not so much a bellwether state.
I'll Hold
Dante -- I'll stick to my previously written expection that Barack Obama will win New Hampshire by 7 percent. But 32 days is a long time...
It's not that Democrats are beating Republicans
as much as Republicans have defeated themselves. The scandals, the out of touch performance of Sununu and overall lack of care to ethics shown by the highest level of Republican operatives in the State has ruined the Party for a long, long time.
People are tired of Sununu and Bradley with the negative ads and dirty tricks; many people I talk to here are voting for the Democratic candidates because they reject the slimy tactics. They are tired of nasty ads, the tricks with the campaign signs and phone lines.
It's clear to many that the Republican Party has simply become a vehicle for people who care only about getting themselves elected. They don't stand for conservative values, they stand only for themselves.
Not for some time
But this is no longer a state where the Republican presidential candidate can survive a high Democratic tide nationally
Bush did not survive here in 2004 despite an electoral college win.
I'll agree with with youe summary, but the "no longer" started quite some time ago.
I beg to differ with the
I beg to differ with the first post. The Republicans will pick up seats and take back the House (albeit by a slim margin) and make the Senate even. The Grafton county jail fiasco will be made known to voters. I'd even bet on picking up one executive council seat (Shea's).
Bradley, Sununu, Hodes, Lynch.
and out on a limb, McCain.
Remember how The One was supposed to win the Primary here?
Palin is "The One"
According to the National Review, anyways.
Speaking of the Primary. I seemed to have missed the spunky Palin in NH. She wasn't here, you say? What a shame. It would have been great to see if she can deliver on all the hype.
Benson did more to damage
Benson did more to damage the republican party than anybody. I think we are still recovering. I have not worked on any republican campagin since before Benson and I am discouraged by the NH republican party.
The democrats have more energy and ideas. All the republicans are still on the same message and it is getting old.
They need new blood and new ideas if they want to compeate with democrats.
Anyway, just my 2 cents from a Social conservatives perspective. I know I am a minority in NH, but hey I call it like I see it.
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