How much will McCain help the Republicans?

I have been hearing a lot lately how Republicans are going to take back New Hampshire this year because with John McCain at the top of the ticket the down ballot candidates will be boosted by his popularity amongst Independents.

It sounds like a logical conclusion. John McCain is very popular with the Independents in the Granite State and will give the Republicans a better shot of carrying New Hampshire’s four Electoral College votes than just about any other Republican could.

Here is the problem with the scenario. New Hampshire voters have a long history of being able to separate their votes office to office. New Hampshire Independents are known to lean Republican, but they are truly independent Independents.

A look at the election results over the last few cycles will show how independent the New Hampshire voter really is.

In 2004 John Kerry won New Hampshire with 50% of the vote to George W. Bush’s 49%. The numbers closely reflected John Lynch’s 51% to Craig Benson’s 49%. At a quick glance it appears there would be a correlation there, but the Governor’s race was much more an anti-Benson vote and a poorly run campaign by Benson than a down ballot effect. Looking at the Congressional races gives a much clearer picture on how the New Hampshire electorate was able to distinguish candidates and offices to party loyalty. Jeb Bradley defeated Justin Nadeau 63% to 37% and Charlie Bass beat Paul Hodes 59% to 38%.

In 2002 Craig Benson was able to easily defeat Mark Fernald while John E. Sununu narrowly defeated Jeanne Shaheen. Looking at the Governor’s race along with the two easy congressional wins for Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass, you would assume John Sununu would have more easily won. But the Independents made a switch from voting Republican to crossing over to support Shaheen enough to keep the race close.

The independence continued in 2000 when Independents voted with the Republicans enough to give George Bush a win for in the Presidential election, Sununu and Bass cruised to easy re-elections in the Congressional races, but Jeanne Shaheen cruised to re-election in the Governor’s race. In what was a strong Republican year, Shaheen should have been in trouble, but the Independent voters again crossed party lines from R to D.

In many purple states such as Ohio, Arizona and Florida history shows the top of the ticket greatly affects down ballot results, but New Hampshire with their strong independent streak and their large Independent voter registration, is an exception to the norm. So while many Republicans are excited thinking this year they will take back the state with John McCain at the top of the ticket, they cannot take that for granted. If Republicans want to take back control of the state they are going to need to show that the electorate got it wrong two years ago. Only time will tell if they will be able to do so.