April 21, 2008 - 9:46am
Hodes safe, Shea-Porter toss-up/tilt Democrat
By Wally EdgeStuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Reports has the latest House ratings. Of the races that are up for grabs only NH’s 1st CD has made the list. Paul Hodes in CD2 appears to be safe if Rothenberg is correct.
In the 1st CD Carol Shea-Porter is a toss-Up/Tilt Democrat in her first re-election bid. Shea-Porter will either be facing former Congressman Jeb Bradley or former HHS chief John Stephen.
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Jennifer " Blow Her Own " Horn
Clegg has a record, Horn has rhetoric. Steiner has neither. No wonder Republicans like Horn. She has nothing to run on, but keeps their long tradition of feeding pathetically bland pablum to the voters. Hodes has a record and it is squarely in keeping with the campaign he ran in 2006 to beat Charlie "deer in the headlights" Bass.
Next time there may be no next time
John Stephen can beat Shea-Porter
Only John Stephen can unseat Carol Shea-Porter. Jeb had his chance and got beat because he is a big spender. The momentum with McCain on the top of the ticket is with an anti-pork, anti-earmarks candidate like John Stephen. John is a man of principle and has an amazing work ethic, much like McCain. The two can work together to win in NH and the country.
CSP
I wouldn't call the CD1 race a toss-up, CSP has a good organization in the district, and is more of a grassroots campaigner. She did only raise 127k, but she has over half a million in the bank.
But money isn't everything, she won with less, and the ticket this year will attract more and more democratic and independent voters than 2006. With Lynch, Shaheen, and either Clinton or Obama on the ticket as well. If it is Obama on the ticket, you can bet he will be doing every NH event with CSP or PH by his side.
The National Party as well as the State Party will do a lot of work making sure voters know what a McCain Presidency will really do, or what losing the majority in Congress will really do to NH.
Divided we fall
It looks like the Republicans in the 2nd District are splitting their funds and the only one who comes out ahead is Hodes.
Steiner is a patriot, but just not a viable candidate. The good news is that at least he's not taking much money from the front runners.
Now that Bosse has dropped out of the race I would like to see the contributions go to only one of the two remaining candidates. Preferably Horn as I believe she is the better choice to beat Hodes in this election.
Not enough voters have switched sides on the key issues to select a Republican over the incumbent Democrat. The only way a Republican will beat Hodes is to tap into the mistrust and impatience that "awarded" this congress with the lowest approval rating in history. Horn seems to be hitting the mark.
Quiet Momentum
I am hearing a lot of buzz about Jennifer Horn from Republicans, Independents and even Democrats. I heard a "lifelong Democrat" on the Charlie Sherman show say that Horn makes sense and has her vote.
Horn seems to be appealing to average people who are frustrated by the lack of progress in Washington. She is clearly not your run of the mill politician.
I think the typical voter contrasting a pastey, middle aged, male lawyer (Hodes) with a dynamic, attractive, assertive, articulate woman will select the latter.
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