There are reasons for Sununu supporters to not be worried yet

Many of NH’s grassroots activists are worried about the slow start John Sununu’s reelection campaign seems to be off to. There have been numerous stories from unnamed Republicans that all point to Jeanne Shaheen’s active campaign profile and Sununu’s much quieter behind the scenes campaign.

It’s true, Shaheen’s campaign to date has been much more active and much more visible than Sununu’s has. And while I too am receiving emails from the grassroots Republican activists complaining about Sununu’s campaign, or lack there of, many of the Granite State’s senior consultants and long time party leaders are not as concerned. After all Sununu still does have one secret weapon, Chief of Staff and long time advisor Paul Collins. Some think Collins may be one of the best political minds in the country that no one has ever heard of.

It appears Collins and his team has a plan. And if past Sununu campaigns hold true there is one thing you can be assured of, they will stick to their plan. Does that mean Sununu will win? No, but it does mean Republicans should sit back and wait and let Sununu’s team execute their plan. Democratic leaders are not over confident. They to understand this is just the first hole of a 72-hole golf tournament. Or as Mitt Romney would say, we haven’t even played the first inning yet, this is still batting practice.

In 2002 Sununu was a lot more active at this time than he is now. But then again we have to remember he was not only a challenger, he was in the process of challenging a sitting US Senator from his own party in a primary. Things are different now. Sununu does not have to worry about a September election. Sununu doesn’t have to worry about introducing himself to the voters of the 2nd CD. Everyone knows who John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen are. All Sununu needs to do is tell voters why the Sununu they know and voted for in 2002 is still the better choice than the Shaheen they know and rejected in 2002.

Today is April 29th and we still have over 6 months to go before the election. Sununu’s team believes the only people who really care right now about this election and what is being said are the activists, the die-hard supporters who will get out there and work hard in October. The same people who already know who they are voting for and won’t be changing their mind.

This election will not be determined among the party voters who won’t be changing their mind one way or the other. This election will be decided among the 20% who are undecided today. Experience will tell us one thing. Those 20% will remain undecided until a month before the election. Some may make up their mind before the leaves change, but many of them will change their mind 4 times by then. Sununu’s team is banking the idea that a dollar spent now will be worth $2 come October when people are more likely to be deciding.

Jeanne Shaheen and John Sununu can spend all the money they want winning those 20% today, and for a short period of time they may win those voters. But those voters are your every day teachers, construction workers and house wives who do not spend every minute thinking about politics and who their next Senator will be. Those 20% will make up their mind who to vote for, and will change it a few times based on new information they receive. Sununu’s team is banking on having the money to spend in October when they can make their last pitch on why to keep Sununu where he is.

Jeanne Shaheen’s team is running a good race now on their time line and trying to define the race early. John Sununu’s team is running on their time line and counting on people paying more attention after the National Conventions.  

With Paul Collins in charge behind the scene many of the Granite State’s top Republican minds are not to worried. Collins and Sununu have always had their own plans, have always stuck to them and have always won. Sununu has been raising money as they have twice as much on hand has Shaheen, he also is about to announce more staff hiring and office openings soon.  They have their time line and are executing it.  Time will tell if Collins has once again come up with a winning formula. Does the fact that Sununu is running their own time line mean they will win the race? Of course not, but if Shaheen does capture the race it won’t be because John Sununu waited until May to kick off his campaign.

More Inside Edge